Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. Continuity will be a factor too, but Durant could easily fit in to just about any team. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%. There were a few highlight reel moments to choose from during DeRozan's heater of a first half, but becoming the first player in NBA history to hit buzzer-beaters on consecutive nights embodies the exceptional fit he has been in Chicago so far. We Might Be Overrating The Celtics, But Youre Probably Underrating Them. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play just like him. Each time the Bucks appeared ready to start rattling off wins in the first half -- such as winning five of six games, including their West Coast swing earlier this month -- they followed up with a setback, dropping three of four heading into the break. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. Thats a core that NBA bettors really seem to like, too. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Holly Fuong. The Suns and Mavericks had the two biggest deadline deals of the season, acquiring Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, respectively, from the Brooklyn Nets. Durant, 34, has missed his last 20 games with a MCL sprain and Paul, 37, has missed 21 games this season. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. It would be extremely unusual for the Kings to snap a historic playoff drought by winning the title with virtually no playoff experience. If L.A. manages to trade Russell Westbrook and replace him with on-court positives, it could see a major bump. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO / GETTY IMAGES. Caesars title odds: +50000 Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. finding their groove has been huge, but so have the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks took huge swings at the deadline to try to stay in the hunt. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. We switched that up to give him a standard per-game minute load and will simply dock the Clippers for his absence on days that he sits out entirely, since thats typically the way his teams have handled his injury management in the past. It remains to be seen how interim coach Joe Mazzulla will fare in Udokas stead, but all RAPTOR can account for here is the quality of Bostons roster, which was evident throughout last season and is even better now after the addition of Malcolm Brogdon. On top of teams jockeying in the standings, the biggest trade of the season -- the James Harden-Ben Simmons swap between the Nets and Philadelphia 76ers -- continues to reverberate across the league, and will require both teams to adjust to the arrival of big-name stars over the next several weeks. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors.) There is some historical wisdom behind minimalism at the deadline. A teams current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. Derrick White Doesn't Produce Like NBA Superstars. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. After Boston, the model sees a group of five teams of roughly similar quality in the Hawks, Heat, 76ers, Raptors and Bucks. Number Fire : Suns have a 72.6% win probability . James and Davis are also projected for slightly worse RAPTOR outputs this year than in previous seasons due to age (James) and chronic injury risk (Davis). . More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. But by landing Kevin Durant in a trade deadline blockbuster, the Suns have the second-best odds of winning the NBA title. They've lost nine of their last 10 games since, including the two prior to the All-Star break in overtime and double overtime. The Lakers ended up dropping the game to Memphis, 121-109. The 76ers had a wild final few days before the All-Star break. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. While the Warriors have improved their scoring attack (which ranked an uncharacteristic-for-the-dynasty 17th during the regular season) in the playoffs and surpassed Boston offensively, the Celtics have the superior postseason numbers in every other category despite playing a more difficult schedule. Here's a look coming out of the All-Star Break at the 12 teams with a shot to make the postseason, listed in order of each team's conference standing. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets. The Cavs dropped their final two games entering the break, but it hardly slowed the momentum for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. Khris Middleton is back, too, furthering the squads championship chances. The Nuggets have the best record in theWestern Conferenceand have looked like one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. The Lakers conjured a three-team trade of their own that netted DAngelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt for LeBron James and Co. Theres still quite a bit of work to be done, as the Lakers (29-32) are currently 12th in the West. Sacramento has been on a slow rise throughout the season, with the Kings now available in the championship market at 100-to-1. Caesars title odds: +600 Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. Download data. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). Cleveland lost two of its top three guards -- Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio -- to season-ending injuries, so the team made a move before the deadline to pick up LeVert. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Bulls did not make a move at the trade deadline because of their belief in the team when it's at full strength. This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. Jrue Holiday (finally) was an All-Star again and Brook Lopez is aging like Benjamin Button. Well begin with the West, home of the defending champs. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +550 ET, TNT): Health and safety protocols robbed fans of seeing Young return to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, so this will be his first trip back since the playoff series last year that ended with him taking a bow at halfcourt. The Celtics, if healthy, have an elite defense. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. Chicago Bulls (+2100 . Boston shrugged off all the noise and came out of the gates playing fantastic basketball. Much of the deadline drama focused on Western Conference teams adding key pieces and moving into the fray near the top of the odds board. Thats why it foresees the Jazz as a play-in team despite their rather obvious intention to tumble in the standings. VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are first, second and fifth in the NBA in minutes played per game this season, with rookie Scottie Barnes and guard Gary Trent Jr. both inside the top 25. Ja Morants allegations of aggression off the court, explained. Caesars title odds: +20000 Those odds are in spite of the No. All rights reserved. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What kind of an impact will Caris LeVert have? Derrick White Doesn't Produce Like NBA Superstars. Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. But in the modern era of basketball, deadline trades are much more effective in acquiring talent for future championship runs than they are in setting up short-term, immediate success. Milwaukee Bucks (72) Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. Nikola Jokic is the favorite to capture his third straight MVP award and the rest of the roster is healthy for the first time in forever, setting up what should be a deep playoff run for Denver. The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. The next-shortest betting odds to win the NBA Eastern. NBA Finals (82) If and when any of them are dealt, that will be accounted for. Based on the odds from Caesars Sportsbook, which list Golden State as -160 (and Boston as +140), we can infer that the bookmakers consider the Warriors a 60 percent favorite to win the title. Either way, the model gives Boston an 80 percent chance of winning the championship over Golden State, in very stark contrast to the betting markets which immediately installed the Warriors as pre-series favorites last week. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely. Web 2022-23 NBA Championship odds. Steph Curry has only played in 38 games and is currently out of the lineup with multiple leg injuries. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. Brooklyn Nets (+260) 2. The expectations were high after the Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency -- especially on the defensive end. Its also worth noting that the Celtics, who emerge as the favorite here, are tied with the 2020-21 Lakers for the lowest title odds (21 percent) of any preseason favorite since the forecast began in 2015-16. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Atlanta starts with a tough slate after the break -- at Chicago, vs. Toronto, at Boston, vs. Chicago -- but at least the Hawks are trending in the right direction. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. Even if you dont like or believe our default forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings (which, again, I dont necessarily blame you), the Celtics are also 68 percent favorites according to our classic Elo-based predictions. Must-see game left on the schedule: 76ers at Cavs, April 3 (6 p.m. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October. If so, the Nets are too good to be just a 45-win team. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets sit atop their respective conferences. Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. At +550, the Celtics implied probability to win with these odds is 15.38 percent. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. NBA championship odds: Best bets to walk away with 2021 title among league's top teams . Web FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to finish 58-24 with title odds of 26. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Cleveland Cavaliers currently have more conference championship tickets and handle than any other team in the East. If Charlotte can defeat Atlanta, it would tie the season series and avoid the Hornets losing that tiebreaker for play-in seeding. The KD And Kyrie Trades Stole The Show At A Wild NBA Trade Deadline, Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear. ET): Any chance to see Antetokounmpo and Embiid go head-to-head is worth watching, but this game could help decide the winner of this year's MVP award. They also have to hope Rose can come back at a high level and stabilize New York's bench. Playoff and title projections: Playoff and title projections: That's 3% clear of the next-strongest team, Phoenix. The upshot of all of that? 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