As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. WEco is funded by multiple donors. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. google_color_url = "426C95"; n$L{Z. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. google_ad_width = 160; Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. SW Satellite Weather She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. But it is concerning. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. Gas Prices on Lake Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. hb```)," Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. 159 0 obj
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google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". Lake Powell, Printable Version The lake is set to reach. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. google_ad_height = 600; google_color_bg = "FFFFFF";
google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. 15 Day Weather Forecast In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. google_color_link = "0000FF"; (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. 175 0 obj
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The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. 04:12 - Source: CNN google_ad_height = 600; The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. google_color_text = "000000"; Detailed Map of Powell 04:18 . Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents 0
Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9
Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast endstream
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The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. SW Satellite Weather The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. %PDF-1.7
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To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. His freelance CNN's Bill Weir has more. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Detailed Map of Powell google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. //2006-10-04: news Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . 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